This Was a MASSACRE – Phasmophobia

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Welcome back to Phasmophobia! In this video we play a ton of nightmare mode games while doing ghost gambling. Turns out this was NOT our lucky day. ENJOY!

I stream every day on https://www.twitch.tv/insym
Twitter: https://twitter.com/InsymTtv
Discord: https://discord.gg/insym
Livestream VODS: https://www.youtube.com/c/InsymVODS
Clips: https://www.youtube.com/c/InsymClipss
Suggest Games for me to Play Here: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScnze199-r7Qb6H79DRb3HCjI0dcRk94NVbUemC1mbyH2pUxA/viewform

NOTE: This video was recorded on Phasmophobia update v0.9.6

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25 thoughts on “This Was a MASSACRE – Phasmophobia”

  1. The crazy ghost gambling adventures from the last weeks are finally going to YouTube. If you haven't watched the streams you are in for a wild ride of hope, betrayal, and triumph in the war between doubters and believers. Enjoy part 1 of this saga!

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  24. Interestingly, with hidden evidence, forced evidence does actually impact the probability of a certain ghost being the correct ghost. In Nightmare, there are 72 (i.e. 24*3) possible ghost/evidence combos since each ghost can hide 1 of 3 evidence. Forced evidence takes away 5 of these options, one each for Deogen, Goryo, Hantu, Moroi, and Obake.

    Since ghosts are equally likely to be chosen, this means at the start of the game, there is a 1.389% ((1/24)*(1/3)) chance for each non-forced combo, and a 2.083% ((1/24)*(1/2)) chance for each forced combo. Once you know the evidence, a number of options are ruled out, but this disparate chance for the ghost/evidence combos of the forced evidence ghosts causes a different chance of them being the correct ghost.

    I'll use the example at 27:00 for a visualization. Since we know the evidence shown are Ghost Writing and Spirit Box, we filter the ghost/combo options to that list. We are left with the following options and their original chance to appear with that evidence set (ruling out Moroi):

    Deogen: 2.083%
    Mare: 1.389%
    Poltergeist: 1.389%
    Spirit: 1.389%

    This means the sum of all the valid ghost/evidence options is 6.25% and can divide each probability by the total to see what the chance the ghost is one of these. That yields a 1/3 (33%) chance to be a Deogen and a 2/9 (22%) chance to be the other ghosts.

    This is certainly counter intuitive but is actually a version of a well known paradox called the Monty Hall problem. Because we know each ghost is equally likely from the start, when the game hides an evidence, it is encoding probabilistic information about the ghost/evidence combo in the same way that Monty Hall encodes information about the doors and sheep.

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